India's Manipur hills are burning. Villages and towns in the state have been bleeding since May 3, as the dominant Hindu Meitei clash with a Christian-majority tribal group, the Kuki. With hundreds of churches attacked by Hindu mobs, there’s a real danger of the ethnic conflict—which has been long and multi-pronged—transforming into a religious conflict.

If the hostilities do take a religious shape, the conflict would easily spread. It might hit troubled areas across northeast India, and might have consequences in Myanmar and Nepal too.

The Manipur conflict has been further exacerbated by the federal government’s apathy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi only opened his mouth in late July after a video of two tribal women being paraded naked and gang raped went viral on social media.

This central government’s lack of sensitivity to the suffering of the Manipuri tribes only adds to the popular suspicion that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) leadership in the state, including government officials themselves, have fanned the flames. As the opposition parties have stated, it's likely that the ruling party and its groups have aided and abetted the dominant Meitei, as they pursue a Hindu nation by suppressing the Kuki, whom they consider outsiders.

The dynamics of ethnic conflict in Manipur—as in the northeast generally—is complex and complicated. The marginalised ethnic groups have been fighting for their identity, land and opportunity. The insurgents not only fight the state, but often each other too as they compete for influence in the hills (between the Naga and Kuki, between the Kuki and Peiti, and so forth).

The interests and demands of the insurgent tribes do not match, either. For example, the Kuki want to split Manipur along ethnic lines and create a separate state within the Indian Union. The Naga are intent on establishing a separate Naga nation altogether, also annexing parts of neighbouring Myanmar and Assam.

Nepal is comparable to Manipur not just geographically, but also historically (in terms of the Hindu state systematically subjugating ethnic and/or tribal groups and Dalits) and ethnographically (the presence of over a hundred different language groups and ethnic communities where many are keen on their ethnic identity and resentful of the dominance of upper-caste Hindus). Nepal’s ethnic politics, which rose impressively in the 1990s, is currently down but not out. And 14 percent of the population designated as Dalits have long suffered discrimination and violence. So, there’s plenty Nepal could from the nasty turn of events in Manipur.

Reject Hindutva

This is the era of Hindutva—a highly politicised Hindu movement—in India. Many believe that Hindutva elements attached to the RSS and BJP and other groups are responsible for the unprecedented levels of ethnic violence in Manipur now.

Hindutva politics in the form of cow protection gangs and several other armed activities have fuelled ethnic tensions and caused violence in several parts of India. Only last week, six people lost their lives, and a great amount of property was destroyed in a deadly clash between Hindus and Muslims in the town of Nuh, Haryana state.

Hindutva is quite different from Hinduism, and Hindutva ideology is highly divisive and toxic. In a 2020 research article published in the academic journal SAMAJ, Audrey Truschke observes: “Hindu nationalists are heavily invested in rewriting Indian history to advance their modern and unrepentantly hateful political agenda.” It does so by hardening the communal boundaries between Hinduism and other faiths, particularly Muslims—while still promoting internal boundaries of caste. Dalits have suffered more under Hindutva politics and policies, even though it tries to pacify them and prevent their conversion to other religions by half-heartedly venerating Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar, for example.

There’s fear of the same hateful and divisive politics spreading in Nepal, and thus further complicating ethnic and caste tensions here. On March 6, 2020, Amish Raj Mulmi wrote an article in The Kathmandu Post, raising the alarm at what he saw as “the insidious spread of Hindutva” in Nepal. He noted: “Those flirting with the idea of a Hindu state need to look at how quickly India has changed.”

Presenting his research at an annual academic conference in Kathmandu in July (regularly hosted by Social Science Baha), Prof Richard Bownas proved that Hindutva is gradually making inroads into Nepal, particularly in the southern plains. Armed groups are undergoing training at different locations in Madhesh. Richard sounded more optimistic and believed that overall the RSS-BJP-style Hindutva had little prospect in Nepali society.

I sincerely hope Richard is right. If Hindutva flourished here, Christian converts and Dalits are likely to be the main targets. We shouldn’t allow vested interests further divide ethnic and caste relations in a country still in transition following the dumping of the Hindu monarchy in 2008.

If hateful politics is promoted, it won’t take much for the country to go down the Manipur route. This is because ethnic tensions are still simmering.

The situation in Nepal's eastern hills is evidence of the ethnic tensions still causing problems. The Limbu and Rai communities have been immensely angered by the naming of their province as Koshi. They’d long fought to enhance their ethnic identity, which would be reflected in the name of the province. So now, some groups have gone as far as training armed groups, which is a dangerous sign. One can only imagine what would happen if such a situation is mixed with Hindutva hatred of the non-Hindu!

I do advocate the use of street demos and mass protests to achieve Dalit freedom. But that anger should be strictly directed against the state—not against any religion or caste or community. Killing a casteist neighbour or looting their shops won’t in any way further our cause. It will destroy us. Communal violence serves no purpose, but the spread of Hindutva would do exactly that.

Don’t ignore grievances

Like the BJP government in Manipur, the Nepal government is notorious for ignoring ethnic, tribal, caste and communal grievances. In the east, for example, the government still hasn’t taken the demands of the proponents of ethnic identity seriously. All parties simply assert that more than 90 percent of the Provincial Assembly members voted for the name Koshi.

Likewise, political parties have turned a blind eye to the suffering of Dalits and tribal groups. There are plenty of rights prescribed by the statutes, but they are mostly limited to the law books. There’s no political will to translate the laws into practice. Instead of reforming the religion and culture to ensure caste and gender and ethnic equality, the government and parties (invariably controlled by Brahmins) have conveniently ignored them. Worse still, the leaders often incite caste violence, and protect the criminals involved in beating or even murdering Dalits and ethnic minorities, for petty political or pecuniary interests.

If the government and the responsible parties have any intention of preventing the rise of hate politics, in the form of Hindutva or similar other ideologies, they’d better listen to all grievances and try to settle them. Take those issues seriously instead of ignoring them. Don’t pretend that political transformations have automatically changed society and resolved all differences.