The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a new debate on the existing world order. The attack on Ukraine is a grave violation of international laws and norms. Furthermore, the Russian aggression has caused monumental harm to the entire world. The very notion that every country is sovereign and equal in the international system has been seriously challenged. Every independent country in the world has the right to pursue independent policies and projects that best suit her national needs and interests. Pursuant to this, Ukraine is believed to have opted for a closer alliance with the West. Ukraine is said to be seeking membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). That’s purely Ukraine’s choice.

A sovereign country can freely choose her friends and allies. Undoubtedly, one should think about one’s security and development. At the same time, one shouldn’t undermine the genuine security concerns of others. The world today is like a family, and everyone is expected to live in harmony. While we have the right to secure ourselves first, we should also be sensitive towards our neighbour’s security. We can’t expect to live in peace while the neighbours live under constant fear and threat.

Big difference

One may ask what Ukraine did that harmed Russian security interests. The answer isn’t that straightforward. Ukraine is a small country compared to Russia. It won’t be realistic to equate Ukraine’s military might with that of Russia. So, Ukraine herself isn’t a threat to Russia. However, Ukraine’s entry into NATO will make a big difference. Ukraine’s NATO membership means the United States and European armies coming to Russia’s doorstep. NATO armies and weapons will be guarding Ukrainian borders. That is surely a cause for concern for Russia. As NATO was founded mainly to counter Russia, how could it be happy with her immediate neighbour joining the rival camp? Russia is not happy with any other European country joining NATO either. This is evident from the recent Russian warning to Sweden and Finland against their plans to join NATO. So how could Russia tolerate her next-door neighbour joining NATO?

Russia was openly against Ukraine getting into NATO from the beginning. Russian security concerns are understandable but her current attack on Ukraine can’t be justified at all. Ukraine indeed should have been sensitive enough towards its neighbour's genuine security concerns. It’s common sense. Ukraine should certainly think about her own security but shouldn’t ignore the security of her neighbours too. I am sure the Ukraine leadership must be aware of this, but some external influence seems to have prompted the decision.

In light of the existing global political and strategic equation, Ukraine opting now for a military alliance can’t be considered a sensible choice. We are still in a bipolar world, and anything that attempts to change the existing balance of power will surely have bigger ramifications in international politics. Countries outside any alliance should maintain their status quo and continue pursuing an independent and non-aligned foreign policy. Non-alignment indeed is the best safeguard against external aggression in the contemporary bipolar world. The Ukrainian leadership has failed to realise this reality. As a consequence, such a beautiful country has now been totally destroyed.

In fact, the Ukraine episode could just be the beginning. There could be many more countries that may face the fate of Ukraine in the future. Some more countries may be swallowed by Russia; many others may be destroyed by the US. Or many other players might pop up in global politics. Nothing to be surprised at all. We have already seen such invasions and destructions in the world. Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Kashmir, Tibet and Sikkim, all once prosperous and beautiful states, have been destroyed, and some have even lost their existence permanently. The current Ukraine crisis has certainly reinforced that fear. Small countries are always vulnerable to foreign aggression. Even in the 21st century, the might is right principle rules the world. A powerful state can attack and annex a weaker one at any time. There’s no mechanism that prevents such aggression against small countries.

The so-called world order based on sovereign equality is a myth. It’s been proven totally false. Had it been true, Ukraine would have not faced its current fate. All these international laws, systems, mechanisms and sovereign principles have been vividly ineffective. In fact, those international laws and restrictions apply only to small and weak countries. The major powers can flout any law and regulation. All global tools and norms are used to serve the big fishes. Take for example how helpless the United Nations is in the current Ukraine crisis. The UN is so far the only hope for small states in the world. They hope that the UN will step in and help them protect their sovereign right in case of any foreign aggression. But the current Russian attack on Ukraine has proved this to be a big illusion.

Survival at stake

The present global order has undergone a de facto change. There is no longer sovereign equality among states. The powerful can easily rule the weak. The survival of small countries is indeed at stake. Small countries truly face an existential threat. We are again heading towards a multipolar world. There will be new alignments and realignments. And small countries will find themselves in a big dilemma. They will be bombarded with a variety of baits and benefits by the major powers. Their ability to make the right decisions will be tested. The time ahead is certainly going to be very challenging for small countries. International politics at present is heavily messed up.

Having said that, small countries, including Nepal, needn’t panic, but they should always make mature and sensible decisions. States shouldn’t deviate from their well tested traditional paths and policies. They shouldn’t jump for a policy shift just because of some major grants or incentives. Furthermore, non-alignment is the best option available to small states at present. Alignment with any power in any manner at the current complex time will bring misfortune to any small country. It doesn’t matter which camp you choose; your ultimate destruction is guaranteed.